Balanced Bootstrap Joint Confidence Bands for Structural Impulse Response Functions
نویسندگان
چکیده
Constructing joint confidence bands for structural impulse response functions based on a VAR model is a difficult task because of the non-linear nature of such functions. We propose new joint confidence bands that cover the entire true structural impulse response function up to a chosen maximum horizon with a prespecified probability (1−α), at least asymptotically. Such bands are based on a certain bootstrap procedure from the multiple testing literature. We compare the finite-sample properties of our method with those of existing methods via extensive Monte Carlo simulations. We also investigate the effect of endogenizing the lag order in our bootstrap procedure on the finite-sample properties. Furthermore, an empirical application to a real data set is provided.
منابع مشابه
Confidence Bands for Impulse Responses: Bonferroni versus Wald
In impulse response analysis estimation uncertainty is typically displayed by constructing bands around estimated impulse response functions. These bands may be based on frequentist or Bayesian methods. If they are based on the joint distribution in the Bayesian framework or the joint asymptotic distribution possibly constructed with bootstrap methods in the frequentist framework often individu...
متن کاملComparison of Methods for Constructing Joint Confidence Bands for Impulse Response Functions
In vector autoregressive analysis confidence intervals for individual impulse responses are typically reported to indicate the sampling uncertainty in the estimation results. A range of methods are reviewed and a new proposal is made for constructing joint confidence bands, given a prespecified coverage level, for the impulse responses at all horizons considered simultaneously. The methods are ...
متن کاملImpulse Response Confidence Intervals for Persistent Data: What Have We Learned?
This paper is a comprehensive comparison of existing methods for constructing confidence bands for univariate impulse response functions in the presence of high persistence. Monte Carlo results show that Kilian (1998a), Wright (2000), Gospodinov (2004) and Pesavento and Rossi (2005) have favorable coverage properties, although they differ in terms of robustness at various horizons, median unbia...
متن کاملJoint inference and counterfactual experimentation for impulse response functions by local projections
This paper provides three measures of the uncertainty associated to an impulse response path: (1) conditional confidence bands which isolate the uncertainty of individual response coefficients given the temporal path experienced up to that point; (2) response percentile bounds which provide bounds on the universe of permissible paths at a given probability level; and (3) Wald tests of joint sig...
متن کاملReducing Confidence Bands for Simulated Impulse Responses
It is emphasized that the shocks in structural vector autoregressions are only identified up to sign and it is pointed out that this feature can result in very misleading confidence intervals for impulse responses if simulation methods such as Bayesian or bootstrap methods are used. The confidence intervals heavily depend on which variable is used for fixing the sign of the initial responses. I...
متن کامل